Week 3 · 2026
Weekly Card
As of Sat Sep 26, 2026 PT, updated model (v3).
Updated Sat 9/26 with the new model. Top Plays: CHI +4.5, PIT +3.5, DEN +2.5. Leans: MIA +11.5, SF -8.5 (ATL +5.5 Lean already won 35-14). Removed: IND +2.5 (no longer a Best Bet), NE +3, LV +3, TEN +2.5, ARI +8.5 (flipped to SF -8.5). No plays on the other games. Updated model (v3): starts from the betting market's team ratings and moves about a third of the way toward our own efficiency and injury numbers. Tested 52.3% ATS on 2020–25 games it never saw; break-even is 52.4%, so these are opinions, not guarantees. Sat update: TB and DET leans removed after injury news (Bain/Trotter out for TB; Bartch/Harper out for DET).
Best Bet Best Bets
- CHI +4.5 vs PHI (Mon)
- PIT +3.5 vs CIN
- DEN +2.5 vs LAR (SNF)
Lean Leans
- ATL +5.5 @ GB (won 35-14)
- MIA +11.5 vs KC
- SF −8.5 vs ARI
Pass Passes
- No plays on the other games (IND, NE, LV, TEN, ARI, DET, TB removed)
Full card: Market vs Our Spread
Westgate = contest line of record (graded here). Market = CBS Sports Week 3 odds table, ~Sep 23, 2026 1:24 PM PT. Gap = points between the Westgate line and Our Spread, toward the card side. Our Spread = updated model (v3), flat HFA 2.0; BAL @ DAL (Brazil) neutral site, HFA 0. Top Plays are listed in the Best Bets tier.
| Game | Westgate | Market | Our Spread | Gap | Tier | Card side | Result | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ GBThu 09/24 | GB −5.5 | GB −4.5 | GB −2.4 | 3.1 | Lean | ATL +5.5 | WINATL 35, GB 14 | GB OL cluster (Banks, Bako-Bewele) + Reed OUT; Penix starts. We are ~3 shorter on GB than Westgate. |
| SEA @ WASSun 09/27 | SEA −7 | SEA −7 | SEA −6.0 | 1.0 | Pass | No side (no play) | NO SIDE | No play on the updated (v3) card. |
| CIN @ PITSun 09/27 | CIN −3.5 | CIN −3.5 | CIN −1.0 | 2.5 | Best Bet | PIT +3.5 | PENDING | Top Play on the updated (v3) card. Our number CIN −1.0 vs Westgate CIN −3.5. |
| NYJ @ DETSun 09/27 | DET −6.5 | DET −6.5 | DET −7.8 | 1.3 | Pass | No side (no play) | NO SIDE | Removed Sat 9/26 (was Lean DET −6.5) after injury news (Bartch/Harper out for DET). No play. |
| TEN @ NYGSun 09/27 | NYG −2.5 | NYG −2.5 | NYG −2.8 | 0.3 | Pass | No side (no play) | NO SIDE | Removed Sat 9/26 (was TEN +2.5). No play on the updated (v3) card. |
| NE @ JAXSun 09/27 | JAX −3 | JAX −3 | JAX −2.2 | 0.8 | Pass | No side (no play) | NO SIDE | Removed Sat 9/26 (was Lean NE +3). No play on the updated (v3) card. |
| KC @ MIASun 09/27 | KC −11.5 | KC −11.5 | KC −9.2 | 2.3 | Lean | MIA +11.5 | PENDING | Lean on the updated (v3) card, at +11.5 only. Opinion only. |
| HOU @ INDSun 09/27 | HOU −2.5 | HOU −2.5 | HOU −2.1 | 0.4 | Pass | No side (no play) | NO SIDE | Removed Sat 9/26 (was IND +2.5, earlier a Best Bet). Updated model is within half a point of the Westgate line. No play. |
| CAR @ CLESun 09/27 | CAR −2.5 | CAR −2.5 | CAR −1.8 | 0.7 | Pass | No side (no play) | NO SIDE | No play on the updated (v3) card. |
| LAC @ BUFSun 09/27 | BUF −7.5 | BUF −7 | BUF −6.8 | 0.7 | Pass | No side (no play) | NO SIDE | No play on the updated (v3) card. |
| MIN @ TBSun 09/27 | MIN −1.5 | MIN −1.5 | MIN −0.4 | 1.1 | Pass | No side (no play) | NO SIDE | Removed Sat 9/26 (was Lean TB +1.5) after injury news (Bain/Trotter out for TB). No play. |
| ARI @ SFSun 09/27 | SF −8.5 | SF −8.5 | SF −9.9 | 1.4 | Lean | SF −8.5 | PENDING | Flipped Sat 9/26 from ARI +8.5 to SF −8.5. Lean on the updated (v3) card. Our number SF −9.9. |
| LV @ NOSun 09/27 | NO −3 | NO −3 | NO −3.4 | 0.4 | Pass | No side (no play) | NO SIDE | Removed Sat 9/26 (was Lean LV +3). No play on the updated (v3) card. |
| BAL @ DAL (Brazil)Sun 09/27 | BAL −3.5 | BAL −3.5 | BAL −6.3 | 2.8 | Pass | No side (no play) | NO SIDE | Neutral site. No play on the updated (v3) card. |
| LAR @ DENSun 09/27 | LAR −2.5 | LAR −2.5 | LAR −0.7 | 1.8 | Best Bet | DEN +2.5 | PENDING | Top Play on the updated (v3) card (Sunday night). Our number LAR −0.7 vs Westgate LAR −2.5. |
| PHI @ CHIMon 09/28 | PHI −4.5 | PHI −4.5 | PHI −2.0 | 2.5 | Best Bet | CHI +4.5 | PENDING | Top Play on the updated (v3) card (Monday night). Our number PHI −2.0 vs Westgate PHI −4.5. |
Power ratings (v3 model)
Points vs a league-average team, entering Week 3. Healthy (v3) = the betting market's team rating moved 35% of the way toward our own efficiency rating. Injury Δ = our recalibrated player-value layer (drivers listed as points). Adjusted = Healthy + Injury Δ; home field is about 1.97 points. ATL and GB played Thursday, so their injury values are as of Thursday and were not recalibrated. Rank is display only. Opinion, not a proven edge.
| # | Team | Healthy (v3) | Injury Δ | Adjusted | Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | +5.2 | −1.1 | +4.0 | Keon Coleman −0.3, Ed Oliver −0.25, DJ Moore −0.6 |
| 2 | LAR | +4.7 | −1.0 | +3.7 | Puka Nacua −1.0 |
| 3 | KC | +3.1 | 0 | +3.1 | |
| 4 | PHI | +3.5 | −0.6 | +2.9 | Dallas Goedert −0.6 |
| 5 | BAL | +4.1 | −1.3 | +2.8 | Ronnie Stanley −0.8, Zay Flowers −0.5 |
| 6 | SEA | +2.2 | −0.2 | +2.0 | Julian Love −0.2 |
| 7 | DET | +2.1 | −0.3 | +1.8 | soft OL limiteds −0.3 |
| 8 | SF | +3.3 | −1.5 | +1.8 | Nick Bosa −0.4, Demarcus Robinson −0.6, Mike Evans −0.5 |
| 9 | DEN | +1.5 | −0.3 | +1.2 | Jonah Coleman −0.3 |
| 10 | CIN | +2.3 | −1.1 | +1.2 | Andrei Iosivas −0.6, B.J. Hill −0.5 |
| 11 | NE | +1.9 | −0.8 | +1.1 | Dre'Mont Jones −0.4, Quintayvious Hutchins −0.4 |
| 12 | JAX | +1.0 | 0 | +1.0 | |
| 13 | MIN | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.5 | Aaron Jones −0.15 |
| 14 | HOU | +2.3 | −2.3 | +0.1 | Nico Collins −1.0, Ed Ingram −0.6, Jadeveon Clowney −0.33, Trent Brown −0.33 |
| 15 | TB | −0.2 | 0 | −0.2 | |
| 16 | LAC | +0.3 | −1.2 | −0.9 | David Njoku −0.6, Charlie Kolar −0.6 |
| 17 | DAL | +2.1 | −3.4 | −1.3 | DeMarvion Overshown −1.0, Durant/Hooker/Locke (3 DBs) −2.4 |
| 18 | CAR | −1.4 | −0.5 | −1.9 | Jonathan Brooks −0.3, Jaelan Phillips −0.2 |
| 19 | PIT | −1.1 | −0.9 | −2.0 | Michael Pittman Jr. −0.3, Dean/Porter −0.6 |
| 20 | CHI | +2.7 | −5.0 | −2.3 | Caleb Williams −4.0, Tyson Bagent −1.0 |
| 21 | NO | −2.1 | −0.8 | −2.9 | Kelvin Banks Jr. −0.8 |
| 22 | IND | −1.6 | −1.9 | −3.6 | Alec Pierce −1.0, Ashton Dulin −0.6, Charvarius Ward −0.35 |
| 23 | LV | −3.9 | +0.3 | −3.6 | Brock Bowers +0.3 |
| 24 | GB | +0.3 | −4.5 | −4.2 | Reed −1.5, Banks −1.2, Bako −1.0, Brinson −0.4, Hargrave Q −0.4 (Thu game; not recalibrated) |
| 25 | NYJ | −3.7 | −0.8 | −4.5 | Mason Taylor −0.6, Minkah Fitzpatrick −0.2 |
| 26 | NYG | −1.3 | −3.3 | −4.6 | Jaxson Dart −3.0, Brian Burns −0.27 |
| 27 | TEN | −4.4 | −0.3 | −4.7 | Pollard+Spears (cluster) −0.3 |
| 28 | WAS | −0.2 | −4.6 | −4.8 | Jayden Daniels −3.0, Sam Cosmi −0.6, Frankie Luvu −1.0 |
| 29 | ATL | −4.4 | −0.8 | −5.2 | Ebukam −0.8 (Thu game; not recalibrated) |
| 30 | ARI | −5.4 | 0 | −5.4 | |
| 31 | CLE | −5.6 | −0.6 | −6.2 | Teven Jenkins −0.6 |
| 32 | MIA | −7.8 | −1.0 | −8.8 | Caleb Douglas −1.0 |
Missing / not used this week
- Week 3 SuperContest / Gold Selections PDFs (contestant pick tallies) were not posted when the card was built, so the contest-leader overlay is blank this week.
- Final Friday/Saturday practice reports: several statuses were Wednesday DNP / Questionable only (valued at ~50%).
- Rest/travel adjustments not applied beyond Brazil HFA 0.
- Ticket vs handle splits: not used this week (blank, not invented).
Lines: Westgate SuperContest Week 3 card (official PDF). SuperContest Gold lines identical.